May 9th is Victory Day in Russia is the day Nazi Germany was defeated in 1945 at the end of World War II. President Vladimir Putin has been using the holiday to glorify Russia and himself. But then came victory in Europe, celebrated on May 9, a day after VE Day (fighting stopped a day later in Russia). On a radio broadcast on May 9 1945 Stalin announced: Glory to our heroic Red Army, which upheld the independence of our Motherland and won victory over the enemy.
In strategic studies and focusing on the USA Foreign Policy, it’s important to note that while Putin himself want the war to end, the USA continue to use its influence to provoke Putin so that the war continue, the more the war is on is the more Russia is losing all its Soviet Union era weapons and it’s the more NATO Countries which were part of the former soviet Union are sending their soviet Union era weapons to help Ukrainian Armed Forces. By the time the Russia-Ukrainian War end, 90% of Soviet Union era weapons will be out of stock in Russia and Europe. This is the strategic goal of the United States of America (USA). Vladimir Putin is using both Soviet Union era weapons and modern weapons in Ukraine while most European nations are sending soviet union era weapons into Ukraine.
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In My Assessment, on 9th May 2022, Vladimir Putin is likely to announce the Following;
- Showcase Russia Nuclear and Conventional Weapons
- Declare victory of Russian troops in Ukraine
- Declare Liberation of Donbas Region
- Announce mass mobilization of Russian troops and reserves for final push deep into Ukraine and against the west.
- Reaffirm that USA is leading the west to divide and destroy Russia
The little understanding of Putin I have, he want this war to end but he is not ready to be considered a coward and a weak Leader. He want Leaders from the west to sweet-talk him or to get a more visible achievement and he will declare victory over Ukraine.
As of now, there is no tangible achievement at all for the Russian troops basing on the core goals of operation (Removing the Nazi Regime in Ukraine, Demilitarizing Ukraine-Ukraine is now more armed), ensuring that Ukraine is a neutral country and Friendly to Russia, ensuring that no Russia neighbor join Nato (Finland will be joining Nato),reducing USA/NATO Expansion towards Russian border-USA/NATO expansion is now more visible with more deployments in Estonia near Russia, Poland,Germany,Romania,etc.
However Putin has succeeded in Bombing Donbas Region where Donetsk Peoples Republic and Luhansk Peoples Republic are Located. Putin is also learning that China and India are not friends he must rely on fully. He has also learnt that he has true friends like Syria, Yemen, North Korea, and Cuba.
Russian military parades are a big deal. Ever since the Red Army Parade of November 7, 1941, when Russian forces marched through Red Square and straight into an epic battle to save Moscow, Russia has employed commemorative military parades to boost Russian nationalism and the Russian state.
With Moscow’s big Victory Day parade set for May 9, commemorating the 1945 surrender of Nazi Germany, observers expect Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, to rattle some sabers. Putin has nothing else to offer in his ongoing effort to “de-Nazify” Ukraine—no major victories or battlefield trophies are available.
Escalation is Putin’s only option. But Putin has few sabers left outside of Russia’s strategic arsenal and the threat of an unpopular full-scale national mobilization.Odds are that Putin will rattle both by declaring a symbolic War on the West.
Ukraine was meant to be a showcase for Russia’s advanced weaponry but Ukraine has demonstrated that both are hollow. Russian military systems have failed in Ukraine, and, even worse for Russia, much of the market supporting ongoing global investment in Russia’s Soviet-era arsenal have disappeared.
Throughout the world, surplus Soviet weapons are flowing into Ukraine. Ammunition shortages and missing Soviet-era replacement parts are spooking potential new customers. In contrast, western weapons, which often create headlines over costs and foibles during testing, are literally blowing away the competition.
Putin’s over-reach in Ukraine has only strengthened global appreciation for “rules-based” order. The loose cooperative defense organizations that, from the outside, seemed weak, have, again, demonstrated their resiliency. In contrast to NATO’s tenacity, Russia’s coercive efforts have proven less than effective. While Belarus frantically works to distance itself from Russia’s disastrous invasion, Finland and Sweden are defying Russia’s bluster and openly—almost gleefully—preparing to join NATO.
Oligarchs, the showy public agents of Russia’s economy, are on the run. Their assets are under threat, and as they race to hide their yachts and foreign families, their corrosive efforts to promote corruption are on full display.
Even Russia’s big cadre of espionage-oriented diplomats are being thinned out, thrown out of their host countries and sent home.There’s nothing left for Putin but an appeal to Russian nationalism and Russian nihilism.
World War III Looms
While the parade won’t have quite the drama of Joseph Stalin’s desperate 1941 march from the Red Square parade ground into battle, Putin will certainly try to follow Stalin’s playbook by appealing to the “Russian Motherland” and shifting blame for his current debacle back on the “West”.
At the May 9 parade, Putin may even declare the symbolic start of World War III, muddying the fact that the West’s irritation starts and ends with Putin himself.
A last, desperate play at the dice makes sense. Putin’s public speech in Red Square offers the Russian President his best—and potentially final—chance for preserving his own survival. A constant showman, in the brief moment he holds the public stage, Putin will do everything possible to build upon the myth that Russia and the West are locked in a mortal struggle.
It is scary. Putin will likely use his bully pulpit threaten nuclear conflict and hope the subsequent uproar will overshadow his implementation of a deeply unpopular and disruptive national mobilization. But it is only an increasingly isolated Putin—not Russia—that is locked in a mortal struggle with the West.
In the days leading up to the May 9 parade, the West must amplify their message that Russia’s problem is an increasingly desperate and reckless President. With Putin either impotent, powerless, or—better yet—gone, Russia’s rationale for the war in Ukraine and conflict with the West fades.
The best Putin can do now is to escalate the war and secure a more visible achievement in the inner Ukraine not just in the Donbas Region. It’s important to note that Russian backed Separatists have been at a war with the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2014 fighting in the Donbas Region. In Brief Russia has always occupied Donbas Region. So if Putin is up to now still in Donbas, I can authoritatively state that he has not achieved his real desired goals but in PR, He can always assert that he is on the right truck.
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